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Betting tips 11.05.2013 - ENGLAND: FA Cup

fa-cup-final-cover-wembleyManchester City - Wigan 1.36 - 9.94

A month ago Wigan visited the Etihad Stadium for a league game vs. M City. C Tevez scored the only goal of the game, but according to most reports Wigan were the better side. Both teams were involved in cup semi finals only days before their league game and it never was a classic. Anyway I just to want to point out that Wigan know, they can make it difficult for Man City and who can forget the way Wigan outclassed Everton at Goodison Park in a cup game this year?

A team like Man City have to win a title every season to keep owners and supporters satisfied and although I am a fan of Martinez' Wigan I expect City to do their job tomorrow. A fully motivated City side can only be beaten in Britain by their neighbours United. In midweek City played against WBA with a much changed side. As many as eight changes were made, but D Silva, K Aguero, Ya Ya Tore and the rest will of course return for this match. No Joe Hart between the sticks, as Pantilimon carries on playing in the cup for City.

Wigan looked nervy against Swansea and they ended up losing a match they seemed to control. OK, they need not be nervous in this final, as everyone expects City to be the winners.

Wigan lost R Stam to an injury and he joins their lengthy injury list. Alcaraz, however, could be fit for this cup final. The favourite!

This Valenciennes side are in healthy form, making a strong impression away to PSG last week. They are a compact side and hard to beat at the moment. I should think we will see Aboubakar in their front line once again, or fit again Pujol will make his come back in this game.

Rennes are still missing all these players, but their season is saved and they need not worry too much about their disappointing season. Their coach will lead the team in three more games and then it is bye, bye.

Mavinga was red carded last week and he will miss this game. Kana-Biyik and Erding are fit again and they could be included in the Rennes squad tomorrow, probably starting on the bench. Home winner.

I have been right about Villa lately and as I have mentioned more than once, it is not only about Benteke. Agbonlahor is back in the kind of form he shows when playing for England. All of a sudden a relatively young player like Agbonlahor realises that he is supposed to be one the father figures in the team and he has grown as a player taking on this responsibility.

Villa are a very energetic side at the moment, full of confidence and this match could prove to be quite an ordeal for Chelsea.

Chelsea played a tough derby game with Tottenham in midweek (2-2) and they will play the Europa League final vs. Benfica on Wednesday. In between this league game at Villa Park with the home team looking like hungry wolves at the moment. Lampard, J Terry, Demba Ba, on the bench against Tottenham, will most likely start tomorrow. X2 game.

Always underpriced at the Goodison Park, in my opinion, but could be I am wrong. Everton are, after all, 11-6-1 at home and these are strong numbers. D Gibson was back last week and the Everton squad are in perfect condition. They scored what looked to be a legitimate goal in the derby, but not according to the referee and the match ended in a 0-0 draw.

West Ham are rarely outplayed these days, but they could be somewhat lacking in motivation at this time of the season, at least when they are playing away from home.

Squad wise West Ham are just fine with J Tomkins back in contention. Anyway I cannot use these 1.53 on the home win, especially now, when Mr Everton, coach Moyes, will leave the club.

I guess the Fulham coach Jol wants a positive reaction from his players after their generous performance against Reading last week. Where is the discipline when a team like Reading are allowed to score four goals? No S Sidwell this time either.

Liverpool will be without L Suarez , D Agger and S Gerrard. They are out for the season.

After last week's debacle I expect the Fulham boss Jol to give his players a last push in this fixture. I am closer to backing the home win, or just skip the match as a betting object.

Last home game of the season and I can imagine that Ferguson and his men want to finish with a victory. It is only about motivation for United of course, but saying that, Swansea are in a similar situation and they played a league game at Wigan earlier this week (3-2 win).

After the first half I could not see Swansea scoring, but they improved in the second half and Wigan were in their most generous mood. Wigan gave away a lot of balls, but I have to say the same thing about Swansea. Ferguson's last home game will most likely end in a home win.

I expect Norwich to win this game. They will be highly motivated, while there is every chance WBA will offer a kind of luke warm display in this game. WBA already played a big game this week away to Man City and in their indifferent situation in the league table two games in a week could prove one too many.

Norwich had their best side in action against Aston Villa. They were as strong as Villa, but Norwich lack match winners in their squad. Last season Grant Holt delivered, but it has not happened this season.

WBA will travel with the same squad that played vs. M City, with the possible addition of C Brunt. Fortune remains suspended. Backing Norwich.

Surely Newcastle are strong enough to win this match. A win would be a season saver for Newcastle and I expect some of their strong individual players to decide this match. Coloccini played the whole game last week in his come back, Ben Arfa played for an hour and their squad at the UptonPark (0-0) was their strongest for quite some time. Debuchy will be back for this game, maybe Marveaux as well, but no Sissoko this week either. Shola Ameobi is a doubt.

QPR looked alright against Arsenal, but in all fairness they did not create much in the final third, happy to keep Arsenal away from their own goal. It is just not happening offensively for QPR and no wonder, their season has turned out to be a drag. C Samba, Bosingwa and M'Bia are all doubtful starters. R Green will continue between the sticks. Backing Newcastle.

A typical Stoke game at Sunderland earlier this week (1-1). Scrambled goals from both sides and Sunderland played as much Stoke football as Stoke, meaning that the home team was prepared to work as hard as the Stoke players. Well, they had to, as they were down to ten men. Even the Stoke coach Pulis admits, they are safe on 41 points, but I take it for granted that we will see the customary hard work from the Stoke players also in this game.

I never thought I would say it, but Adebayor was man of the match when Tottenham managed a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge. Dembele is likely to recover in time for this match.

This is a match Tottenham have to win, but they never had it easy and comfortable at the Britannia Stadium. Two 2-1 wins and two 2-1 losses in their last four encounters at Stoke territory. My choice will be the away win.

I find it a bit strange, but Southampton are in as much trouble as Sunderland. Strange because Southampton have played much better football than Sunderland, but the numbers never lie of course. Southampton were better than Tottenham for an hour or so, but the Bale goal destroyed their day late on in the match. Both D Fox and G Ramirez will be suspended this week.

I was impressed by Sunderland's fighting spirit against Stoke a couple of days ago. Down to ten men they managed an equaliser and they could even have won the match. Still it is tough having to play the remaining games without both C Gardner and Sessegnon. Not to forget S Fletcher, sidelined for quite some time now. If we were in Italy I would be dead certain this fixture will end in a draw. Now I say, it is a X2 game.

Away win will be my choice. Much at stake for Valencia, it is about coming fourth in the league and they have a better chance now that Real Sociedad were beaten by Getafe earlier this week. Valencia are two points behind Real with four games to go and Valencia will look upon the remaining fixtures as cup games. However all is not well ahead of this match, as the important Jonas will be suspended this weekend. Canales will not play either, but both Tino Costa and Rami should be available again.

Rayo miss their leading striker Leo Baptistao, Tito and most likely my favourite Lass as well. Lass and Tamudo has been training individually this week. Delibasic will play again, back from his suspension.

Not the greatest odds, I admit that, but the away win will be my choice.

Possible upset! Getafe are in great form demonstrated at the start of this week with Getafe winning 2-1 vs Real Sociedad. They are forced to change their line up in one position, as their offensive midfielder D Castro will be suspended for this game. On the other hand they will have Colunga available again.

Osasuna will be weakened as three starters last week, Nano, Timor and Arribas will be suspended this weekend. Annan, Lolo and Sisi are still on their injury list. Armenteros will be back tomorrow.

Osasuna are fighting for their existence, I am aware of that, but surely they are underpriced this time against a strong Getafe side dreaming of Europe. The outsider.

Backing Athletic Club. The Basques are in quite good form the, but they have missed an awful lot of scoring chances lately. Their recent wastefulness in front of the enemy goal has resulted in too many draws. Ander Herrera will be back from his suspension for this game.

It looks like Mallorca will be relegated. In their most recent home games, vs. relatively unmotivated sides like Rayo and Levante, they have only managed 1-1 draws and that is too bad. They have defensive worries ahead of this away game. Bigas and A Lopez risk missing also this game and a third defender A Hutton is also in grave danger of missing out tomorrow. Could be that a new defensive line, Ximo and Kevin on the two flanks will play with Nunes and Geromel in the centre of their defence. Armenteros is an injury doubt. I expect A Bilbao to punish the make shift Mallorca defence. Home winner.

The winning machines Udinese will be able to call on their two defenders Domizzi and Danilo again. Pinzi will also be available again. Their coach sent Di Natale to the bench after his penalty miss, but it was only to be kind to Di Natale, according to coach Guidolin.

Atalanta miss the suspended Stendardo and Cigarini, the injured Raimondi as well, but they welcome back Lucchini.

The amazing Udinese run could mean football in Europe next season, but they better win this game. I will not back this 1.36 on the home win, has to do with the odds of course, but I will not back the outsider either.

Already on the beach, or on the golf course? The Bologna players obviously after 0-9 in their last two games. For this fixture they have to play without the suspended Gilardino, Perez and Kone and the injured Carvalho, Cherubin and Antonsson. Moscardelli could replace Gilardino, or Gabbiadini will, Natali and Krhin may also start. No Gobbi or Sansone for Parma.

It looks like Parma are looking to end the season in a positive way and they will get my vote in this fixture.

Should Palermo lose to Fiorentina, then Genoa need no more points to remain a Serie A side

but I expect Genoa to do their own little job by winning against this terribly unlucky Inter side. Unlucky because they miss an entire team, unlucky because things never seem to go their way this season. Poor Alvarez! He should have scored two goals against Lazio in midweek, but he missed an absolute sitter and then he also missed a penalty. Makes me wonder, will he play this weekend?

Inter lost their defenders Jonathan and Ranocchia to injuries and they will miss this game along with Juan Jesus and Pereira, all new absentees. They have no proper defensive line. Cambiasso could play there, maybe Chivu, if he recovers, new boy Pasa, maybe Benassi. Yes, you can see four yourself how hopeless their defensive situation is at the moment. They say that Cassano, Nagatomo and Palacio are fit again but will they be risked? Nagatomo and Cassano are closest. Likely home win.

Losing at home to Udinese was a disaster for Palermo, but they can have no complaints about the result. Di Natale missed a penalty for Udinese.

Palermo are forced to win this game, or they can say goodbye to Serie A. Can they do it?

I have seen bigger upsets in my life, but I do not think Palermo will be successful on Sunday. Going for the three points I fear they will severely punished by this very confident home side.

Tomovic will be back in the home defence, but Ljajic and Aquilani will be missing again.

Jovetic, Larrondo and Pizarro will be assessed. Palermo welcome back Donati, but they lose Barreto to a suspension.

Miracle or not? Not in my book, but should Jovetic and the other injury doubts miss this match, then I will probably think otherwise.

No Montolivo for Milan, but Boateng will return. Balzaretti will be back in the Roma defence. This is just the kind of game that Roma enjoy playing. They seem to hit another gear when they are facing the top teams and I must say, the Milan win is awfully underpriced. Not that Milan have done anything wrong for ages, but they are not that good a side, not that superior to Roma. Too short odds on the home win.

Winning 3-1 away to Inter. Sounds impressive? It was a strange game and Lazio did not really play a strong game. Inter missed some unbelievable scoring chances and Lazio scored a couple of soft goals. Typified the Inter season, more or less.

Lazio are better at the Olympic Stadium, they are on a winning run and they have a lot to play for and they should be the winners tomorrow. Sampdoria are officially safe and I cannot recall when they last won a league game. Lazio miss Dias and Konko, but that is no problem. Home winner.

Officially runners up to Juventus one can confidently say that Napoli will only play for fun on Sunday. Whether or not Siena will enjoy this fixture is of course another question. Maybe mathematically they can still stay up, should they win their remaining two matches, but they are relegated the way I see it.

Siena created very little at home to Fiorentina and it was disappointing. Their play maker Rosina will miss this game and Reginaldo may be his replacement. Defender Felipe will return to the Siena squad.

Behrami and Campagnaro will not play for the home side and it is quite possible that their coach will be making some kind of turnover for this game. Some five or six fringe players may get their chance on Sunday. This could lift the Siena spirits, the fact that Napoli will send out an alternative side in this game.

For you big favourite backers, be careful with this game, or at least wait till the official line ups will be known.

A draw in this game and Torino will most likely be safe on their 38 points. Torino should be the motivated side in this game, but you never know. Chievo demonstrated good morale and fighting spirit away to Roma earlier this week (1-0 win). Chievo have to manage without the suspended Luciano and Papp. X2 game.

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